Several years ago on this website we reviewed three identical studies of people’s religious identification done in 1990, 2001, and 2008 by Trinity College, in Hartford, Connecticut. As we move into a new year, and nearly a decade after the last report was first released, it is time we looked again at those trends.
In 2008, the college published their American Religious Identification Survey (ARIS). Their research team led by chief investigators Barry A. Kosmin and Ariela Keysar discovered some disturbing facts about the lostness of America (see: www.americanreligionsurvey-aris.org). By lostness, we mean the level of unsaved people in this country.
They started by showing the growth of the adult U.S. population over two decades. In 1990 the adult population was about 175 million. In 2001 it had increased to 208 million. And, in 2008, it was 228 million. From these population numbers they studied the percentages of those American adults (age 18 and over) who identified themselves by specific religious affiliations.
They found the percentage of adults claiming to be Christian, by any definition, decreased from 86.2% in 1990 to 76.7% in 2001 and down to 76.0% in 2008.
The percentage of the population that identified with evangelical Christian movements dropped from about 37% to about 34% from 1990 to 2008. However, the doctrinally unorthodox Jehovah’s Witnesses (0.8%) and Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS) (1.4%) maintained their membership percentages throughout that period.
The largest single group of self-identifiers were Roman Catholics. While their population numbers grew from 46 million in 1990 to 57.2 million in 2008, the percentage fell from 26.2% to 25.1%.
One of their most significant findings was that the percentage of people adhering to Islam in the USA doubled from 0.3% to 0.6% from 1990 to 2008.
They also discovered that the number of people in Eastern Religions increased from 0.4% to 0.8%. The researchers attributed the increase of Islam and the Eastern Religions as mainly due to dramatically increased immigration over those eighteen years from 1990 to 2008. (These percentages may actually have been low in that some Muslims and other immigrants in the USA are reluctant to identify their faith backgrounds.) In any case, this means that the adherents of various world religions are coming to America much faster than we are reaching them for Christ.
Perhaps the most startling finding of the report was the great percentage of increase of those American adults affirming no religion (the “Nones”). This group more than doubled their percentage of the total population from 8.2% in 1990 to 15.0% in 2008. Numerically, the “Nones” increased almost 230% from 14.3 million in 1990 to 34.1 million 2008.
The adults were also asked the question, “Regarding the existence of God, do you think . . . ?” To this question, in 2008, 2.3% gave an Atheist response, “There is no such thing.” 10% gave an Agnostic response, “There is no way to know” or “I’m not sure.” 12.1% gave a Pantheistic (Far Eastern Thought) or Pagan response, “There is a higher power but no personal God.”
Only 69.5% of the American adult population gave a clearly Theistic (but not necessarily Christian) answer, “There is definitely a personal God.” That being said, according to another study done by the Barna Research Group, only 9% of all American adults actually have a solidly biblical worldview.
We are now into the year 2017. As far as I know there has not been a more recent update of the ARIS research data. Perhaps a new survey will be done in the next few years. In any case, my inclination is that the trends indicated in the two decades of 1990 to 2008 have continued since then.
The United States’ adult population is now about 250 million (out of about 315 million including those under 18). I believe the number of adult Americans self-identifying as Christian has now probably fallen below 75%. Of those, the percentage of evangelicals likely has dropped to about 30%. Roman Catholics have probably now dropped below 25%. Meanwhile, Jehovah’s Witnesses and the LDS probably have continued to hold their own because of their large families (LDS) and aggressive proselytizing efforts (JWs and LDS).
Almost certainly, the number of adherents of non-Christian world religions has continued to grow, and their percentages of the population likewise. My expectation is that the number of adult Muslims in America is now close to 1% or about 2½ million. Including children, the number of Muslims may now be nearly 5 million.
Likewise, I am confident that the numbers of Eastern Religious adherents has also continued to grow as immigration continues to be high from Asian countries. They, also, now probably compose about 1% of the population.
The most important trend, that I imagine has continued as more of the characteristically sceptical and cynical Millennial Generation has reached adulthood, is the growth in the number of “Nones.” If the trend has continued, the percentage may now be as high as 20%, or 45 million adults, who claim no religious affiliation. That is a startling increase of more than 300% in less than three decades.
So what do these trends portend for the general religious environment, for the status of Christianity (especially evangelical Christianity), and for the lostness of America? I believe there are five basic implications these statistics suggest that we, as Christians, must take seriously for the future.
1. There will be a continued trend toward increased secularization and religious indifference.
The sad truth is, despite the fact that ¾ of the adult American population still claims to be Christian, it is steadily becoming more secular in spiritual orientation. The growth of the “Nones” is indicative of weakening religious belief and values among people in this country. One of the most perplexing trends in recent decades is the reluctance of younger adults to embrace or commit to any spiritual perspective. Reasons for this tendency is hard to discern. It may be a result of the influences of popular culture, secular public education, the breakdown of the family unit, devaluation of religious values, and a general sense of disillusionment with modern life.
2. There will be a continued increase in the numbers and percentages of the American population adhering to the beliefs of non-Christian world religions and nontheistic worldviews.
As we stated, the influx of immigrants from predominantly Muslim and Asian areas will continue to expand the numbers of the adherents of their homeland religions. Even those who are not strongly dedicated to their faiths, nonetheless, will carry their cultural worldview concepts. As Christians, this is certainly a major cause for concern, but it may also be seen as an opportunity. Research has shown that people who are relocated out of their normal cultural environments are often open to discussing and embracing the Christian Gospel.
3. There will be an even greater degree of ignorance of the Bible and the Christian worldview.
As we indicated in our review above, a recent study by BARNA showed that only about 9% of Americans (including evangelical Christians) truly have a Biblical worldview. The continued secularization and religious indifference of the younger generation will probably lead to the further decline in the knowledge and understanding of the Bible, and the Christian worldview, among the general population.
This trend is obviously disturbing, and should alarm the leaders of churches to find more effective ways to educate children and youth in biblical truth. In all of church history, there has never been easier access to the Bible and Scriptural study aids than this present time through new translations and electronic devices. People need to be encouraged to take advantage of them.
4. There will be a continued increase of societal intolerance toward distinctively Christian and Biblical beliefs and moral values.
Early this year, a prominent African American Gospel singer and Pentecostal pastor recorded a song that was used in the soundtrack of a Golden Globe Award nominated movie. As a result she was invited to appear on several national television programs. However, videos were posted online of her preaching a sermon warning her congregation of “the sin of homosexuality” and offering spiritual help for those in bondage to it. Consequently, she was immediately dis-invited by TV programs, and publically scolded by a number of celebrities. Those critics included some actors involved in the movie who said, incredibly, that she was preaching “hate,” was “homophobic,” and should be boycotted by the public.
That kind of response is only the beginning of what we can expect in the future for those Christians (or others) who publically stand for biblical ethical and moral standards. Already, evangelical Christians are regularly branded as “intolerant” for teaching that salvation is found only in Christ. Likewise, they are called “bigoted” or “hate-filled” for believing in the biblical standard of marriage of a man and a woman.
In the future, this kind of actual intolerance toward Christian values, and those holding them, will undoubtedly increase. This means that even Christian pastors and leaders will be forced to decide whether to stand solidly on biblical authority, or to compromise in order to avoid the popular cultural backlash.
5. The American people will exhibit a greater degree of spiritual lostness than at any time in our history.
All these facts lead to conclusion that the lostness factor in America will continue to grow. It is fair to say, I believe, that in the future, Christians and Christianity will be further marginalized from the mainstream of American culture to a degree never before experienced. It will be more difficult to express biblical truth without being met with hostile opposition from the cultural elites, the mainstream media, and even the government. It is conceivable that even preaching or sharing the Gospel of Jesus Christ may be restricted. Let’s pray that it never comes to that.
Meanwhile, I see the only way our society can reverse these non-Christian trends is if it experiences a genuine spiritual revival. Frankly, I don’t see it happening, but as Jesus said, “All things are possible with God.” So pray.
© 2017 Tal Davis